Monday, December 8, 2008

President Obama & the effects on housing in the Bay Area..

Earlier this week, President-elect Obama announced many of the new members of his cabinet—an important move which showcases his commitment to hitting the ground running once he takes office in January.

Not surprisingly, the order of his political appointments has even been well-planned with Obama first selecting the appointment of his economic team (which he has made very clear is his first order of business), led by Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary, and this week his national security team, picking once rival Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and President Bush’s Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, to continue at his post.

Obama announced on Saturday that he has asked his economic team to develop an economic recovery plan that will (by 2011) “help both Main Street and Wall Street help save or create at least 2.5 million jobs while rebuilding our infrastructure, improving our schools, reducing our dependence on oil and saving billions of dollars.” Many members of the media are calling his plans a “teched out” version of FDR’s New Deal which many arguably believe helped to pull America out of the Great Depression.

It remains to be seen whether or not this can be done but I’m excited about the prospects for our country and am looking forward to watching the plans unfold over the next several months. In the meantime, there are two things pressing right now for our local market. The first is talk of decreasing interest rates into the 4.5% range which could increase a buyer’s purchasing power dramatically in today’s market. Couple that with one of the most pressing issues for our local market which is the fact that the conforming loan limits (increased earlier this year to $729,750 in most Bay Area markets) are set to expire at the end of 2008.

Perhaps there will be another stimulus package that will raise the conforming loan amount but at this point, that answer is unknown which is giving many buyers a reason to act now. Knowing this, the last couple of weeks—though holiday weeks—have had some surprising twists. Let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
- San Francisco—Our Lombard office notes that the market has been pretty quiet. REO sales are leading the way. Open house traffic is light. We’ve seen a huge number of withdrawn listings after this week’s Broken Opens but widely differing opinions as whether or not sellers should stay on the market during the holidays. Our Market Street office had one property go into multiples this week with 10 offers. The property needed fixing but had a great location. It did go over asking but not quite as much as one would have though. For the few opens that were help open over the weekend, the traffic was good and Agents felt qualified buyers were coming through and ready to buy. Our Noriega office notes that the market is slow all the way around over the last weeks of November.

- Santa Cruz County—Local inventory in the county continues to drop weekly as we move quickly into the holiday season. Single family residences in the county are down to 883 total with 259 total pendings in the county. 104 of the pendings are in Watsonville and represent the very active REO market and another 45 are in San Lorenzo Valley, the two outer ends of the county. The remainder of the sales are spread throughout the county with the Aptos, Seacliff, RDM, Seascape and La Selva Beach collectively with the highest number of pendings. Buyers continue to control and drive the market and few changes are expected through January.
- Silicon Valley—Our Cupertino Stevens Creek office reports that the market continues to be slow as sellers are holding their homes off the market for the holidays. Buyers continue to circle like shares looking for the best deals. Open houses reflect a large number of buyers still in the market for homes. Our Los Altos First Street office notes that open houses are still getting good activity but buyers are wanting to wait. Older listings are not getting much interest even after a price reduction which is a good reminder for sellers to price and present the properly correctly from the beginning. Our San Jose Will Glen office notes that it is still pretty busy and open houses continue to draw interested buyers.
Though historically speaking December is a slow month, I suspect with the impending decrease of the conforming loan limits as well as the impending interest rate decrease, we may see a busier December than expected.

President-elect Obama has a grand vision for the country once he takes over in January and I think all of us are waiting to see if he is able to fill his promises.

Until then, I’d like to leave you with this. Today’s market is not for the weary. Today’s market is for the serious buyer and seller. Buyers who are looking for a home right now—not only in today’s economic conditions but also during this festive time of year—are serious and typically, are ready to make a move. Sellers who are selling right now—again, in this market and during this time of year—tend to be serious and motivated. The key is to bring the two together on level playing fields and to get a positive result.

Right now remains one of the greatest opportunities in decades to purchase a home so take advantage of this opportunity before it is too late.

Monica Manocha Re,CMRS
Silicon Valley~Monterey Bay~East Bay
Direct: 408-399-1495
Please let me know how I can help you, your friends, family & co-workers with all their real estate needs.