Last year closed on several positive notes when it came to the housing market, and a number of recently released reports suggest we could be seeing the market stabilizing and even gaining some momentum as we begin the New Year.
Noted housing economist Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab said in a recent report that “we’re seeing a light at the end of the housing tunnel.” The senior vice president and chief investment strategist for the brokerage firm pointed out that the pending-home-sales index surged more than 7% last month to its best level since April 2010.
“At that point, housing was artificially supported by the homebuyer tax credit,” she said in her new economic forecast. “The last time pending sales were at the current level without government support was June 2007.” Adding to the optimism, Sonders said, was the fact that the latest construction spending report was well ahead of expectations with most of the gains in private housing.
Sonders isn’t alone in her estimation that real estate could be bottoming out. In a report released Monday, Clear Capital, a real estate valuations company, predicted that prices in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area will remain flat this year versus a 4.7 percent drop in 2011.
The firm said Silicon Valley should see a 1.6 percent increase in home prices, compared with a 2.5 percent drop last year. "This region overall is doing pretty well," Clear Capital research director Alex Villacorta told the San Jose Mercury News.
The positive signals add more evidence that the housing market overall is moving in the right direction as we begin 2012.
Of course, we’ll continue to face headwinds. While foreclosures declined sharply last year, the drop was in part due to legal and regulatory issues that prompted lenders to delay action on delinquent borrowers. That “shadow inventory” of distressed homes could come back on the market this year, although it’s doubtful we’ll return to 2010 levels again.
The jobs picture is improving, although there will be bumps along the road as we saw this week. Weekly unemployment claims spiked last week more than expected after companies let go of thousands of holiday hires.
And while predicting that the real estate market has bottomed, Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders believes the recovery in housing will be a slow and gradual one, similar to how she sees the recovery in the overall economy playing out.
Nonetheless, the economic and housing news in recent months continues to trend higher and offer reason for encouragement that 2012 will truly be a “Happy New Year.”
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Buy now!!!
It's a great time to be a buyer in today's real estate market!! If you are ready to jump into the market and buy or have any real estate related questions, please don't hesitate to contact me. I look forward to hearing from you and would welcome the opportunity to work with you.
A better future ahead?
All signs point to 2011 as the year that pushed Silicon Valley right out of the recession. But it wasn't without its ups and downs. Real estate came back with a bang — major housing projects ramped up with thousands of units under construction. High-tech companies and developers haggled over campus space, as they quickly absorbed 100,000-plus square foot sites. On the flip side, health care hit some challenges with reform uncertainty and a higher number of uninsured heading into the emergency rooms for treatment. Technology and venture capital was a mixed bag — Solyndra went belly up, while Facebook and Google saw massive growth. And a number of CEOs were shown the door.
Let's talk more later
Let's talk more later
Monday, January 9, 2012
Some facts about real estate in the Bay.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $363,500. That was up 3.9 percent from $350,000 in October, and down 4.3 percent from $380,000 in November 2010. The median has declined on a year-over-year basis for the last 14 months.
The low point of the current real estate cycle was $290,000 in March 2009. The peak was $665,000 in June/July 2007. Around half of the median’s peak-to-trough drop was the result of a decline in home values, while the other half reflected a shift in the sales mix.
Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – made up 47.8 percent of the resale market. That was up from 45.2 percent in October and 46.7 percent a year ago.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 26.5 percent of resales in November. That was up from 25.3 percent in October, and down from 28.6 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 10 percent.
Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 21.3 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was up from 19.9 percent in October and 18.1 percent a year earlier. Two years ago the estimate was 16.5 percent.
Last month 31.0 percent of Bay Area sales were for $500,000 or more, down from a revised 31.3 percent in October, and down from 37.2 percent in November 2010. The low for the current cycle was January 2009, when just 22.7 percent of sales crossed the $500,000 threshold. Over the past 10 years, a monthly average of 47.8 percent of homes sold for $500,000-plus.
Government-insured FHA home purchase loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 22.3 percent of all Bay Area home purchase mortgages in November. That was up from 21.2 in October and down from 23.9 percent a year earlier.
One indicator of mortgage availability that had seen improvement earlier this year dropped again in November, when 11.6 percent of the Bay Area’s home purchase loans were adjustable-rate mortgages, down from a revised 12.9 percent in October, and up from 9.9 percent in November last year. Over the last decade, ARMs have accounted for 51.0 percent of all purchase loans. ARMs hit a low of 3.0 percent of purchase loans in January 2009.
Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 29.7 percent of last month’s purchase lending, up from a revised 27.9 percent in October, and down from 33.4 percent a year ago. Jumbo usage dropped to 17.1 percent in January 2009. Before the credit crunch struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the Bay Area purchase loan market.
Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 22.6 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, up from 22.3 percent in October and 19.1 percent a year ago. The peak was 23.4 percent in February this year, while the monthly average since 2000 is 13.9 percent. Absentee buyers paid a median $240,000 in November, down from $243,500 in October and the same as a year earlier.
Buyers who appear to have paid all cash – meaning no corresponding purchase loan was found in the public record – accounted for 27.9 percent of sales in November, down from 28.5 percent in October but up from 25.2 percent a year ago. The record was 30.5 percent last February, while the monthly average going back to 1988 is 12.1 percent. Cash buyers paid a median $240,000 in November, down from $248,000 in October and down from $250,000 a year earlier.
For more information let's set up a time to talk real estate and you.
The low point of the current real estate cycle was $290,000 in March 2009. The peak was $665,000 in June/July 2007. Around half of the median’s peak-to-trough drop was the result of a decline in home values, while the other half reflected a shift in the sales mix.
Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – made up 47.8 percent of the resale market. That was up from 45.2 percent in October and 46.7 percent a year ago.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 26.5 percent of resales in November. That was up from 25.3 percent in October, and down from 28.6 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 10 percent.
Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 21.3 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was up from 19.9 percent in October and 18.1 percent a year earlier. Two years ago the estimate was 16.5 percent.
Last month 31.0 percent of Bay Area sales were for $500,000 or more, down from a revised 31.3 percent in October, and down from 37.2 percent in November 2010. The low for the current cycle was January 2009, when just 22.7 percent of sales crossed the $500,000 threshold. Over the past 10 years, a monthly average of 47.8 percent of homes sold for $500,000-plus.
Government-insured FHA home purchase loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 22.3 percent of all Bay Area home purchase mortgages in November. That was up from 21.2 in October and down from 23.9 percent a year earlier.
One indicator of mortgage availability that had seen improvement earlier this year dropped again in November, when 11.6 percent of the Bay Area’s home purchase loans were adjustable-rate mortgages, down from a revised 12.9 percent in October, and up from 9.9 percent in November last year. Over the last decade, ARMs have accounted for 51.0 percent of all purchase loans. ARMs hit a low of 3.0 percent of purchase loans in January 2009.
Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 29.7 percent of last month’s purchase lending, up from a revised 27.9 percent in October, and down from 33.4 percent a year ago. Jumbo usage dropped to 17.1 percent in January 2009. Before the credit crunch struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the Bay Area purchase loan market.
Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 22.6 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, up from 22.3 percent in October and 19.1 percent a year ago. The peak was 23.4 percent in February this year, while the monthly average since 2000 is 13.9 percent. Absentee buyers paid a median $240,000 in November, down from $243,500 in October and the same as a year earlier.
Buyers who appear to have paid all cash – meaning no corresponding purchase loan was found in the public record – accounted for 27.9 percent of sales in November, down from 28.5 percent in October but up from 25.2 percent a year ago. The record was 30.5 percent last February, while the monthly average going back to 1988 is 12.1 percent. Cash buyers paid a median $240,000 in November, down from $248,000 in October and down from $250,000 a year earlier.
For more information let's set up a time to talk real estate and you.
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