Weekly Market Watch
September 8-14
They called it “Nightmare on Wall Street.” In the past two weeks, the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America. If that weren’t enough, the Federal Reserve announced late Tuesday night that it was loaning $85 billion to American International Group (AIG).
Our nation’s financial system is in the midst of a massive shakeup, caused largely in part by this decade’s housing correction. Between 2002 and 2006, household borrowing grew at an average annual rage of 11%, far outpacing overall economic growth. Borrowing by financial institutions grew by a 10% annualized rate. Now many of those borrowers can’t pay back the loans, a problem that is exacerbated by the collapse in housing prices. They need to reduce their dependence on borrowed money, a painful and drawn-out process that can choke off credit and economic growth.
According to the Wall Street Journal this week, “At least three things need to happen to bring the deleveraging process to an end, and they're hard to do at once. Financial institutions and others need to fess up to their mistakes by selling or writing down the value of distressed assets they bought with borrowed money. They need to pay off debt. Finally, they need to rebuild their capital cushions, which have been eroded by losses on those distressed assets.”
Only time will tell how and when this shakeup will correct itself. Among the highlights:
"The pace of Bay Area home sales reversed its July uptick and dropped again last month, marking a return to the long-running waiting game that many potential buyers and sellers have been playing for more than a year.”
“A total of 7,232 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay Area in August. That was down 4.7 percent from 7,586 in July, and down 0.9 percent from 7,299 in August 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.”
“Last month's sales total was the second-lowest for an August, behind 6,688 sales in August 1992, in MDA DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. An "average" August had 10,031 sales, while the peak August in 2004 had 13,940.”
“At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 8.6 percent of resales in San Francisco to 61.3 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area's other seven counties, August foreclosure resales were as follows: Contra Costa, 54.4 percent; Marin, 13.5 percent; Napa, 39 percent; Santa Clara, 24.7 percent; San Mateo, 16.6 percent; Sonoma, 41.6 percent.”
“The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $447,000, down 4.9 percent from $470,000 in July and down a record 31.8 percent from $655,000 in August 2007, according to MDA DataQuick.”
“Last month's median stood at the lowest point since January 2004, when it was $440,000. The median peaked at $665,000 in June, July and August of 2007.”
Waiting for the bright spot? Keep reading. There’s no question, the result of foreclosures have drastically hindered our median sales price in many of our markets. And for those sellers who are not under duress and are just looking to sell, they are forced to lower their prices dramatically just to compete.
But we knew that the housing correction posed the biggest risk to our economy and that our economy and our markets would not recover until the bulk of the housing correction was behind us. The good news is that we are in the midst of depleting much of our distressed inventory. With stats like 61.3% of sales in Solano County being foreclosure resales, 54.4% in Contra Costa and 41.6% in Sonoma County, we are starting to push through that negatively impacted inventory. And once we do, we will start to see a market rebound. No, it won’t happen overnight. But as it does, we will see first a leveling off and then, ultimately, an increase in marketing conditions.
So what has all of this week’s news done for our market? Honestly, people are concerned. I think we all are. This week’s news did nothing for consumer confidence which is why it is important that we remind our clients of the benefits of investing in real estate. Real estate is a strong, long-term investment and as long as our consumers keep that in mind, they may prevail in today’s market. Couple that with the fact that inventory levels are high, interest rates are low, the conforming loan limits have increased and prices have decreased substantially in many markets, we have one of the best buyers markets in decades. So buyers, if you’re considering buying, now may be the time!
So with this valuable insight in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
*Silicon Valley—Things are looking pretty bright for Silicon Valley real estate. Cupertino DeAnza notes that “things are picking up and there is a lot of optimism at the sales meeting.” Los Altos First Street reports that buyers are still lining up for a few select properties. We had one very nicely redone and staged Cupertino townhome listed at $588,000. The listing had 14 offers and sold in the mid $600,000s. Los Altos San Antonio reports that we are seeing more floor time activity including a walk-in that translated into a $3 million listing and a floor call on a $1.5 million listing. While the news throughout Silicon Valley seems to be good, San Jose Almaden did report that the Wall Street news was ruffling quite a few feathers and was causing concern for some. We’ll have to watch as this plays out over the next few weeks and I would once again caution would be buyers that despite the economic hardships that our nation is enduring right now, real estate remains one of the strongest investments that you can put your dollar towards.
Okay, so in looking at it, yes, the nation’s economic news did nothing for our wallets this week. Many of us are still sobbing over our investment portfolios. But as you can see, real estate has remained pretty stable in the face of the negative news on Wall Street. Overall I think buyers are starting to get the idea that it may just be time to get into the housing market and sitting on the sidelines may cost them plenty—in terms of higher prices, higher interest rates and less inventory—in the long run.
September 8-14
They called it “Nightmare on Wall Street.” In the past two weeks, the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America. If that weren’t enough, the Federal Reserve announced late Tuesday night that it was loaning $85 billion to American International Group (AIG).
Our nation’s financial system is in the midst of a massive shakeup, caused largely in part by this decade’s housing correction. Between 2002 and 2006, household borrowing grew at an average annual rage of 11%, far outpacing overall economic growth. Borrowing by financial institutions grew by a 10% annualized rate. Now many of those borrowers can’t pay back the loans, a problem that is exacerbated by the collapse in housing prices. They need to reduce their dependence on borrowed money, a painful and drawn-out process that can choke off credit and economic growth.
According to the Wall Street Journal this week, “At least three things need to happen to bring the deleveraging process to an end, and they're hard to do at once. Financial institutions and others need to fess up to their mistakes by selling or writing down the value of distressed assets they bought with borrowed money. They need to pay off debt. Finally, they need to rebuild their capital cushions, which have been eroded by losses on those distressed assets.”
Only time will tell how and when this shakeup will correct itself. Among the highlights:
"The pace of Bay Area home sales reversed its July uptick and dropped again last month, marking a return to the long-running waiting game that many potential buyers and sellers have been playing for more than a year.”
“A total of 7,232 new and resale houses and condos were sold in the nine-county Bay Area in August. That was down 4.7 percent from 7,586 in July, and down 0.9 percent from 7,299 in August 2007, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.”
“Last month's sales total was the second-lowest for an August, behind 6,688 sales in August 1992, in MDA DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. An "average" August had 10,031 sales, while the peak August in 2004 had 13,940.”
“At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 8.6 percent of resales in San Francisco to 61.3 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area's other seven counties, August foreclosure resales were as follows: Contra Costa, 54.4 percent; Marin, 13.5 percent; Napa, 39 percent; Santa Clara, 24.7 percent; San Mateo, 16.6 percent; Sonoma, 41.6 percent.”
“The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $447,000, down 4.9 percent from $470,000 in July and down a record 31.8 percent from $655,000 in August 2007, according to MDA DataQuick.”
“Last month's median stood at the lowest point since January 2004, when it was $440,000. The median peaked at $665,000 in June, July and August of 2007.”
Waiting for the bright spot? Keep reading. There’s no question, the result of foreclosures have drastically hindered our median sales price in many of our markets. And for those sellers who are not under duress and are just looking to sell, they are forced to lower their prices dramatically just to compete.
But we knew that the housing correction posed the biggest risk to our economy and that our economy and our markets would not recover until the bulk of the housing correction was behind us. The good news is that we are in the midst of depleting much of our distressed inventory. With stats like 61.3% of sales in Solano County being foreclosure resales, 54.4% in Contra Costa and 41.6% in Sonoma County, we are starting to push through that negatively impacted inventory. And once we do, we will start to see a market rebound. No, it won’t happen overnight. But as it does, we will see first a leveling off and then, ultimately, an increase in marketing conditions.
So what has all of this week’s news done for our market? Honestly, people are concerned. I think we all are. This week’s news did nothing for consumer confidence which is why it is important that we remind our clients of the benefits of investing in real estate. Real estate is a strong, long-term investment and as long as our consumers keep that in mind, they may prevail in today’s market. Couple that with the fact that inventory levels are high, interest rates are low, the conforming loan limits have increased and prices have decreased substantially in many markets, we have one of the best buyers markets in decades. So buyers, if you’re considering buying, now may be the time!
So with this valuable insight in tow, let’s take a look at this week in real estate:
*Silicon Valley—Things are looking pretty bright for Silicon Valley real estate. Cupertino DeAnza notes that “things are picking up and there is a lot of optimism at the sales meeting.” Los Altos First Street reports that buyers are still lining up for a few select properties. We had one very nicely redone and staged Cupertino townhome listed at $588,000. The listing had 14 offers and sold in the mid $600,000s. Los Altos San Antonio reports that we are seeing more floor time activity including a walk-in that translated into a $3 million listing and a floor call on a $1.5 million listing. While the news throughout Silicon Valley seems to be good, San Jose Almaden did report that the Wall Street news was ruffling quite a few feathers and was causing concern for some. We’ll have to watch as this plays out over the next few weeks and I would once again caution would be buyers that despite the economic hardships that our nation is enduring right now, real estate remains one of the strongest investments that you can put your dollar towards.
Okay, so in looking at it, yes, the nation’s economic news did nothing for our wallets this week. Many of us are still sobbing over our investment portfolios. But as you can see, real estate has remained pretty stable in the face of the negative news on Wall Street. Overall I think buyers are starting to get the idea that it may just be time to get into the housing market and sitting on the sidelines may cost them plenty—in terms of higher prices, higher interest rates and less inventory—in the long run.
Have a great week!
Monica Manocha Re, CMRS
408 399 1495
*Your referrals are the lifeline of my business. Please let me know how I can help you or others you know with their real estate needs.
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